# Advanced Supplier Negotiation

> Models that anticipate price movements in inputs and markets: buy earlier, negotiate better and capture the optimal acquisition cost.

In purchasing, timing is worth as much as the discount: whoever only reacts to list prices always negotiates at a disadvantage. Orion projects price movements for your critical inputs and structures the decision of when, how much and from whom to buy, so your company gets to the negotiating table ahead of the market.

## Overview

- Area: Value Chain and Logistics
- Delivery: customizable solution
- First pilot: about 8 weeks
- Solution 09 of 15
- Topics: Price forecasting, Purchase timing, Optimal cost

## When this decision gets expensive

If two or more sound familiar, this solution will most likely pay for itself.

- Purchases follow the replenishment calendar, not market timing.
- Input price increases show up first in the supplier's quote, too late to react.
- Negotiations use the supplier's own history as the reference, with no independent cost projection.
- There is no quantified scenario to answer "do we buy now or wait?".

## What Orion delivers

- Price projections for the critical inputs of your business, with base, optimistic and adverse scenarios.
- Recommendations on purchase timing and volume that balance projected price, inventory and working capital.
- Target cost by item and supplier (should-cost) as an independent reference at the negotiating table.
- Purchase window alerts and periodic review of projections.

## Technical foundation

- **Econometric modeling:** Commodity, exchange rate and industry index series handled with multivariate projection models.
- **Purchasing optimization:** A timing and lot-size formulation that integrates projected price, carrying cost and supply constraints.
- **Should-cost and scenarios:** Breakdown of item cost and simulation of negotiation outcomes under multiple market scenarios.

## Indicators tracked

- Average acquisition cost per critical input
- Gap between price paid and target cost
- Price projection accuracy
- Working capital tied up in inventory
- Savings captured per purchase window

## Talk about this solution

WhatsApp: https://api.whatsapp.com/send/?app_absent=0&phone=5554991678345&text=&type=phone_number
E-mail: orion@orionotimizacao.com
Full method: https://orionotimizacao.com/en/method

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