# Demand Forecasting

> Models that learn from your history and external indicators to anticipate sales with real accuracy.

Every purchasing, production and staffing decision starts with a forecast. Orion builds models that combine your operation's history with external indicators, delivering projections at the level of granularity where the decision is actually made: SKU, store, period.

## Overview

- Area: Commercial Strategy and Markets
- Delivery: Orion Portal, Orion Forecast (live)
- Solution 02 of 15
- Topics: Seasonality, SKU / store / day, Short and medium term

In the Orion Portal, Orion Forecast comes in two versions: Forecast Essential, ready to apply (level 1), and Forecast Advanced, configured to your operation (level 2).

## When this decision gets expensive

If two or more sound familiar, this solution will most likely pay for itself.

- The forecast lives in spreadsheets and changes hands every cycle.
- Forecast error shows up as stockouts or idle excess inventory.
- Seasonality and calendar effects are adjusted "by eye".
- There is no systematic measurement of the accuracy of past forecasts.

## What Orion delivers

- Forecasting models by SKU, store and period, with automatic re-estimation.
- Incorporation of external variables: calendar, weather, exchange rates, industry indicators.
- Confidence intervals to size risk, not just the central value.
- Continuous tracking of accuracy against actual operations.

## Technical foundation

- **Time series and ML:** Ensembles combining classical statistical models and machine learning across the product hierarchy.
- **Hierarchical reconciliation:** Consistent projections across SKU, family, store and company total.
- **Rolling backtesting:** Validation over moving windows, replicating real-world usage conditions.

## Indicators tracked

- MAPE / WMAPE by hierarchy level
- Forecast bias
- Service level and stockouts
- Inventory coverage

## Case studies for this solution

- [Forecasting with external factors cut inventory by 22%](https://orionotimizacao.com/en/case-studies/external-factor-forecasting-inventory-reduction) — One hundred thirty macro- and microeconomic factors now feed into planning, combining forecasting, market scenarios and decision optimization.

## Talk about this solution

WhatsApp: https://api.whatsapp.com/send/?app_absent=0&phone=5554991678345&text=&type=phone_number
E-mail: orion@orionotimizacao.com
Full method: https://orionotimizacao.com/en/method

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