# Market Indicator Intelligence

> Project exchange rates, commodities and industry indices to support decisions across multiple scenarios.

Purchasing, contract and pricing decisions depend on variables the company does not control. Orion structures projections of exchange rates, commodities and industry indices into quantified scenarios, so leadership decides knowing what it is exposed to.

## Overview

- Area: Commercial Strategy and Markets
- Delivery: Orion Portal, Orion Insider (in validation)
- Solution 03 of 15
- Topics: Exchange rates, Commodities, Scenarios

In the Orion Portal, this solution gives rise to Orion Insider, a module in validation with more than 300 official indicators and the Ori.AI analytical assistant.

## When this decision gets expensive

If two or more sound familiar, this solution will most likely pay for itself.

- Contracts and purchases are closed without a quantified alternative scenario.
- Exposure to exchange rates and commodities only shows up in the results, after the fact.
- Each department works with a different macro assumption.
- Market data arrives, but never turns into decisions.

## What Orion delivers

- Projections of the critical indicators for your industry, with base, optimistic and adverse scenarios.
- A single dashboard of macro assumptions shared across departments.
- Quantification of how exposed results are to each variable.
- Periodic updates of projections and scenarios.

## Technical foundation

- **Econometric modeling:** Macro series handled with multivariate models and stability tests.
- **Scenario simulation:** Monte Carlo over the variables with the greatest impact on results.
- **Sensitivity analysis:** Ranking of variables by marginal effect on the company's margin.

## Indicators tracked

- Projection error by indicator
- Exposure of results by variable
- Fit of the base scenario to actuals
- Lead time gained on decisions

## Talk about this solution

WhatsApp: https://api.whatsapp.com/send/?app_absent=0&phone=5554991678345&text=&type=phone_number
E-mail: orion@orionotimizacao.com
Full method: https://orionotimizacao.com/en/method

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